Research Status
Every strategy in the Strategy Lab pipeline, read directly from the committed campaign records under research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/ — no GitHub archaeology required. This page is read-only and reflects exactly what has actually run; it never re-derives or re-decides a status.
Active Phase 5 prospective live-shadow candidate; F6 FIXED 2R runs alongside as its paired control, not an independent strategy. See /api/live/f6-tally.
A2Dot10ShadowRunner is deployed, wired into lib/live/webhookProcessor.ts, and ARMED at its verified production true-live boundary (2026-09-16T21:12:31.000Z). Only signals entering at or after that instant count toward the prospective sample -- see /api/live/a2dot10-tally.
Survived Holdout but the Final Research Audit flagged unresolved risk(s): Longest observed losing streak 23 trades -- confirm this is tolerable before any further stage.; Holdout expectancy diverges materially from Validation's own -- treat as a fresh, not fully explained, open question..
dataAvailability="NOT_AVAILABLE" -- required data (MNQ 1-minute OHLC, MNQ 1-minute volume (NOT AVAILABLE in this dataset)) is not confirmed available.
dataAvailability="NOT_AVAILABLE" -- required data (MNQ 1-minute OHLC, MNQ 1-minute volume (NOT AVAILABLE in this dataset)) is not confirmed available.
dataAvailability="NOT_AVAILABLE" -- required data (MNQ 1-minute OHLC, MNQ 1-minute volume (NOT AVAILABLE in this dataset)) is not confirmed available.
dataAvailability="NOT_AVAILABLE" -- required data (MNQ 1-minute OHLC, MNQ 1-minute volume (NOT AVAILABLE in this dataset)) is not confirmed available.
The mechanism never produced a single entry over the dataset -- the preregistered trigger condition may be miscalibrated for this instrument/timeframe, or is simply extremely rare. Not evaluable on this evidence.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Survives the bootstrap CI and 0.25pt slippage but turns negative at 0.5pt (a realistic execution cost for this instrument) -- not a clean pass.
Holdout: n=100, expectancy=-0.1100R -- did not confirm the prior evidence.
Holdout: n=100, expectancy=-0.2200R -- did not confirm the prior evidence.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0515R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 133.3% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Robustness Gauntlet: Removing 2024 alone flips the combined expectancy sign -- the whole edge rests on one year (that year's own totalR=114.0).
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0457R over 5532 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.933), with 5/5 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1443R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 71.4% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0579R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 145.2% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0016, 0.1083]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0047, 0.0123]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1402R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 141.2% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0059R over 6016 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.991), with 3/5 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0042R over 954 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.994), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0487R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0266R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 62.5% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0021R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 77.3% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0107R over 14652 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.984), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0057, 0.0191]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0034R) but 1/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0784R over 906 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.887), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0054, 0.0992]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0924R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0072, 0.0433]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0600R is negative/flat, and the sign is inconsistent across years (0/1 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign).
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0130, 0.1685]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0052R over 24675 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.992), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1081R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0012, 0.1970]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.2527R over 91 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.662), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0021, 0.0374]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Only 22 resolved trades (< 30) -- expectancy/PF/drawdown figures are real but not statistically interpretable at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0528R over 35 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.918), with no individual year reached the minimum sample to assess consistency.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0116, 0.0491]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1176R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 166.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0057R over 5259 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.991), with 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.1739R over 138 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.760), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.1845R over 58 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.742), with 2/3 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0843R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 1100.9% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0959R over 458 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.874), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0210R over 2004 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.969), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Robustness Gauntlet: Removing the top 20 winning trades collapses expectancy from 0.2393R to 0.0029R (>70% reduction) -- the edge depends on a small number of outsized winners.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0800R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 333.3% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.2000R over 45 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.727), with no individual year reached the minimum sample to assess consistency.
Validation Gate: Validation expectancy 0.0074R is less than 30% of Discovery's 0.0715R -- severe degradation.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0160R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 156.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1854R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 121.4% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0050R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 127.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0353, 0.1113]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.2203R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 153.8% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0533R over 6946 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.922), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0356R over 24941 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.947), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
Validation Gate: Discovery expectancy 0.1243R flips sign to -0.0225R on the untouched Validation split.