Campaign closedCampaign A5 closed: 0 Phase B candidates from 19 submittedCLOSED2026-09-17 02:54Z
Rejected 19 · reserve/research-version-required 0 · not testable with available data 0.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a5/campaign_state.json
Research History
Every committed research program and every dated research event. This page enumerates the artifact tree rather than a curated list, so a campaign cannot become unreachable once attention moves on — and rejected work is as visible as surviving work, because the multiple-testing burden is counted per registered test.
Programs indexed
26
Strategy Lab campaigns
6
Strategy Factory campaigns
0
Other output programs
17
Dated events
194
Newest event
2026-09-17 02:54Z
No Strategy Factory campaign artifacts in this checkout — the A6+ campaigns are produced by the multi-market research lane and will be indexed here automatically once their artifacts are present.
Strategy Lab campaigns
6 indexedStrategy Lab campaign A5Submitted: 19Rejected: 19Holdout opened: 0Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-17 02:54Z
19 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a5/campaign_state.json
Strategy Lab campaign A3Submitted: 10Rejected: 9Holdout opened: 2Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-16 17:14Z
10 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/campaign_state.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_3_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_3_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_8_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_8_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json
Strategy Lab campaign A4Submitted: 5Rejected: 5Holdout opened: 0Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-16 14:02Z
5 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a4/campaign_state.json
Strategy Lab campaign A2Submitted: 10Rejected: 9Holdout opened: 1Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-16 02:40Z
10 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/campaign_state.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_FROZEN_SPEC.md · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_SHADOW_VALIDATION_REPORT.json
Strategy Lab campaign A1Submitted: 10Rejected: 4Holdout opened: 1Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-15 23:57Z
10 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a1/campaign_state.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a1/A12_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json · research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a1/A12_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json
Strategy Lab campaign A0Submitted: 5Rejected: 5Holdout opened: 0Data: MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-152026-09-15 17:55Z
5 pre-registered strategies, 0 Phase B candidate(s). Campaign CLOSED.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a0/campaign_state.json
Research output programs
17 indexedvalidation-campaignDocuments: 12026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/validation-campaign/session-manifest.json
phase2-mini-masterDocuments: 92026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/phase2-mini-master/ARM_C_CLASSIFICATION.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/F6_500_TRADE_GATE_AUDIT.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/HOLDOUT_PREREGISTRATION_F6_TRAIL0P5R_VS_FIXED2R.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/HOLDOUT_RESULTS_F6_TRAIL0P5R_VS_FIXED2R.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/OVERNIGHT_RANGE_CLASSIFICATION.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/PB_ELITE_CLASSIFICATION.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/PHASE2_FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/phase2-mini-master/PHASE2_STRATEGY_REGISTRY.json · research-output/phase2-mini-master/pbelite_validation_check_raw_output.txt
phase3-mini-masterDocuments: 52026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/phase3-mini-master/PHASE3_ALLOCATOR_SPEC.md · research-output/phase3-mini-master/PHASE3_FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/phase3-mini-master/PHASE3_PORTFOLIO_CONFIG.json · research-output/phase3-mini-master/PHASE3_PORTFOLIO_RESULTS.json · research-output/phase3-mini-master/PHASE3_RISK_RESEARCH.md
phase4-mini-masterDocuments: 82026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_CAUSAL_AUDIT.md · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_FAILURE_INJECTION_RESULTS.json · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_FRESHNESS_SPEC.md · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_PREREGISTRATION.md · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_REMEDIATION_REPORT.md · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_REPLAY_LEDGER.json · research-output/phase4-mini-master/PHASE4_STATE_MACHINE.md
phase5-live-shadowDocuments: 52026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/phase5-live-shadow/PHASE5_CHECKPOINTS.md · research-output/phase5-live-shadow/PHASE5_EXECUTION_TRACKING.md · research-output/phase5-live-shadow/PHASE5_LIVE_SHADOW_LEDGER.md · research-output/phase5-live-shadow/PHASE5_OPERATIONAL_HEALTH.md · research-output/phase5-live-shadow/PHASE5_STATUS.md
next105-campaignDocuments: 12026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/next105-campaign/session-manifest.json
oos21Documents: 12026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/oos21/session-manifest.json
pb-comprehensive-campaignDocuments: 42026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/phase11_results.txt · research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/phase1to4_results.txt · research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/phase5to9_results.txt
phase1-mini-masterDocuments: 62026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/phase1-mini-master/MANIFEST_PHASE1_MINI_MASTER.md · research-output/phase1-mini-master/events_clock_a1_openclose.json · research-output/phase1-mini-master/events_clock_a2_rthmom.json · research-output/phase1-mini-master/events_clock_a3_bucket_n20.json · research-output/phase1-mini-master/events_clock_a3_bucket_n40.json · research-output/phase1-mini-master/events_clock_a3_bucket_n60.json
multi-family-campaignDocuments: 392026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/multi-family-campaign/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md · research-output/multi-family-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/multi-family-campaign/PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3_sens_lookbackLonger.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3_sens_lookbackShorter.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3_sens_triggerHigher.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3_sens_triggerLower.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f3_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or15.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or15_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or30.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or30_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or5.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f4_or5_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f5.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f5_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6_sens_lookbackLonger.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6_sens_lookbackShorter.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6_sens_thresholdHigher.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6_sens_thresholdLower.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f6_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f7.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f7_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f9.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/events_f9_validation.json · research-output/multi-family-campaign/family8_data_audit.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/phase1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/phase1_funnel_summary_validation.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/portfolio_overlap_f3_f6.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/sensitivity_results.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage1_results.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage1_results_validation.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage2_exits.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage2_mechanism_f3.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage2_mechanism_f6.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage2_robustness_f3.txt · research-output/multi-family-campaign/stage2_robustness_f6.txt
f6-exit-variant-studyDocuments: 82026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/MANIFEST.md · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/MANIFEST_ROUND2.md · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/RESULTS.md · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/RESULTS_ROUND2.md · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/f6_exit_variant_events.json · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/f6_exit_variant_round2_events.json · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/f6_trailing_stop_events.json · research-output/f6-exit-variant-study/variant_registry.json
family10-campaignDocuments: 62026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/family10-campaign/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md · research-output/family10-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/family10-campaign/events_f10.json · research-output/family10-campaign/failed_candidates_f10.json · research-output/family10-campaign/phase2_funnel_summary_f10.txt · research-output/family10-campaign/stage1_results.txt
forward-validation-campaignDocuments: 22026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/forward-validation-campaign/MANIFEST.md · research-output/forward-validation-campaign/f6_forward_validation_report.txt
liquidity-sweep-reclaimDocuments: 122026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_sens_accept15m.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_sens_horizon180.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_sens_horizon300.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_sens_lookback10.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_sens_lookback20.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/events_validation_chunk1.json · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/phase2_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/phase3to7_results.txt
discovery-gauntlet-v2Documents: 552026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_extvsopen_3x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_extvsopen_4x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_extvsopen_5x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_finalhourrev_0_85thresh.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_finalhourrev_0_8thresh.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_finalhourrev_0_9thresh.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_impulseexh_3bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_impulseexh_4bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_impulseexh_5bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_lunchrangebrk.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_momentum_1_5x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_momentum_2_5x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_momentum_2x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_openingdrive_2x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_openingdrive_3x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_openingdrive_4x.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_overnightrange.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_priordaylevels.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rangerotation_20bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rangerotation_30bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rangerotation_45bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rejectionbar_1_5atr.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rejectionbar_1atr.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_rejectionbar_2atr.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_volcompr_0_5ratio.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_volcompr_0_6ratio.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_volcompr_0_7ratio.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapdev_1_5sd.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapdev_2_5sd.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapdev_2sd.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapreclaim_1bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapreclaim_3bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_vwapreclaim_5bar.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_zscorerev_2_5z.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_zscorerev_2z.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/events_zscorerev_3z.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/extvsopen_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/family10_vwapdev_STAGE1_RESULTS.md · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/family10_vwapdev_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/finalhourrev_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/impulseexh_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/lunchrangebrk_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/momentum_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/openingdrive_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/overnightrange_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/priordaylevels_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/rangerotation_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/rejectionbar_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/research_split_manifest.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/strategy_registry.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/variant_registry.json · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/volcompression_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/vwapreclaim_stage1_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/discovery-gauntlet-v2/zscorerev_stage1_funnel_summary.txt
av2-planningDocuments: 22026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/av2-planning/AV2_1_PREREGISTRATION.md · research-output/av2-planning/AV2_RESEARCH_BACKLOG.md
breakout-acceptance-continuationDocuments: 212026-09-18 08:24Z
research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/FINAL_REPORT.md · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a0.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a0_sens_bhorizon180.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a0_sens_rhorizon300.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a0_validation.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a1.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a1_validation.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a2.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/events_a2_validation.json · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase10to12_armA_fixed2r.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase10to12_armC_fixed3r.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase2_funnel_summary.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase2_funnel_summary_sens_bhorizon180.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase2_funnel_summary_sens_rhorizon300.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase2_funnel_summary_validation.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase5to9_results_a0.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase5to9_results_a0_sens_bhorizon180.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase5to9_results_a0_sens_rhorizon300.txt · research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/phase5to9_results_a0_validation.txt
Phase findings
1 indexedPhase findings and campaign status documentsDocuments: 62026-09-18 08:24Z
Per-phase findings from the Regime-Robustness campaign and the status documents that record each lane's position.
docs/CAMPAIGN_STATUS.md · docs/PHASE_D_FINDINGS.md · docs/PHASE_F_FINDINGS.md · docs/PHASE_G_FINDINGS.md · docs/PHASE_H_FINDINGS.md · docs/PHASE_J_FINDINGS.md
Governance & canonical plans
2 indexedGovernance and canonical plansDocuments: 62026-09-18 08:24Z
The documents every gate, phase and compartment on this site is read from.
docs/TRADE_RESEARCH_ROADMAP.md · docs/TRADE_REP_MASTER_PLAN_REBOOT.md · docs/status/TRADE_REP_MASTER_TRACKER.json · research-output/av2-planning/AV2_RESEARCH_BACKLOG.md · research-output/av2-planning/AV2_1_PREREGISTRATION.md · research-output/registry/README.md
Machine-readable campaign status filesFiles: 12026-09-18 08:24Z
Controller state per campaign lane. A controller state is a declared position, never a running process — see the Monitor.
docs/status/TRADE_REP_MASTER_TRACKER.json
Event typeAll 194Experiment registered 71Campaign opened 6Campaign closed 6Holdout authorised 4Holdout slice assigned 4Holdout result 4Milestone 28Hypothesis tested 41Authorisation 4Protected decision 17Blocker resolved 9
Dated research events
60 of 194 shown, newest firstExperiment registereda5-19-inter-extreme-spacing@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · VALIDATIONrecord →2026-09-17 02:54Z
[a5] Validation Gate: Discovery expectancy 0.1243R flips sign to -0.0225R on the untouched Validation split.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-18-level-revisit-count@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:52Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0356R over 24941 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.947), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-17-run-length-vs-expectation@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:52Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0533R over 6946 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.922), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-16-round-number-magnetism@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:52Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.2203R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 153.8% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-15-trend-embedded-compression@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-17 02:51Z
[a5] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0353, 0.1113]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-14-impulse-pullback-velocity-asymmetry@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:48Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0050R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 127.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-13-prior-day-extreme-failed-acceptance@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:48Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1854R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 121.4% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-12-prior-day-extreme-acceptance@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:47Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0160R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 156.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-11-failed-mean-reversion-continuation@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · VALIDATIONrecord →2026-09-17 02:46Z
[a5] Validation Gate: Validation expectancy 0.0074R is less than 30% of Discovery's 0.0715R -- severe degradation.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-10-expansion-staircase@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:46Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.2000R over 45 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.727), with no individual year reached the minimum sample to assess consistency.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-09-premarket-or-confluence-break@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:45Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0800R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 333.3% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-08-session-handoff-continuation@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · ROBUSTNESSrecord →2026-09-17 02:44Z
[a5] Robustness Gauntlet: Removing the top 20 winning trades collapses expectancy from 0.2393R to 0.0029R (>70% reduction) -- the edge depends on a small number of outsized winners.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-07-compression-break-false-failure@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:43Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0210R over 2004 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.969), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-06-vwap-displacement-regime-switch@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:42Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0959R over 458 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.874), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-05-overnight-reversion-failure@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:42Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0843R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 1100.9% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-04-opening-inventory-rejection@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:41Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.1845R over 58 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.742), with 2/3 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-03-price-per-volume-vacuum-reversal@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:41Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.1739R over 138 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.760), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-02-price-per-volume-vacuum-continuation@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:38Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0057R over 5259 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.991), with 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda5-01-volatility-acceleration-continuation@a5-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-17 02:36Z
[a5] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1176R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 166.7% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Campaign openedCampaign A5 opened with 19 pre-registered strategies2026-09-17 02:36Z
Data snapshot MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-15, Holdout partitioned at 2025-12-31 (249,375 bars withheld from every pre-Holdout gate). Code version 67d8d64.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a5/campaign_state.json
100 trades consumed · stop reason FORMAL_TARGET_100 · 682,907 sealed bars preserved unused · Holdout: n=100, expectancy=-0.2200R -- did not confirm the prior evidence.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_8_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json
Campaign closedCampaign A3 closed: 0 Phase B candidates from 10 submittedCLOSED2026-09-16 17:14Z
Rejected 9 · reserve/research-version-required 1 · not testable with available data 0.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/campaign_state.json
Holdout authorisedOne-shot sealed Holdout authorised for a3-failed-expansion-continuationrecord →2026-09-16 17:14Z
AJ <meatham07@gmail.com> -- explicit chat authorization ('AJ explicitly authorizes a one-shot sealed Holdout for A3.8 using the next deterministic untouched chronological Holdout slice after all previously consumed Holdout data, with no block shopping, no retry, no tuning, no rule changes'), trade-count-based deterministic Holdout consumption policy, 2026-09-16
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/campaign_state.json
Evaluated chronologically forward from 2020-05-21T07:01:00.000Z, frozen before evaluation.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_8_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json
100 trades consumed · stop reason FORMAL_TARGET_100 · 718,563 sealed bars preserved unused · Holdout: n=100, expectancy=-0.1100R -- did not confirm the prior evidence.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_3_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json
Holdout authorisedOne-shot sealed Holdout authorised for a3-volume-acceleration-momentumrecord →2026-09-16 15:33Z
AJ <meatham07@gmail.com> -- explicit chat authorization ('AJ explicitly authorizes the one-shot sealed Holdout for A3.3 Volume Acceleration Momentum / a3-v1 now'), trade-count-based deterministic Holdout consumption policy, 2026-09-16
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/campaign_state.json
Evaluated chronologically forward from 2020-04-20T19:06:00.000Z, frozen before evaluation.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/A3_3_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json
Campaign closedCampaign A4 closed: 0 Phase B candidates from 5 submittedCLOSED2026-09-16 14:02Z
Rejected 5 · reserve/research-version-required 0 · not testable with available data 0.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a4/campaign_state.json
Experiment registereda4-volatility-clustering-persistence@a4-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 14:02Z
[a4] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0116, 0.0491]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda4-overnight-inventory-reversal@a4-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 14:01Z
[a4] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0528R over 35 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.918), with no individual year reached the minimum sample to assess consistency.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda4-close-location-pressure-persistence@a4-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 14:00Z
[a4] Lightning Screen: Only 22 resolved trades (< 30) -- expectancy/PF/drawdown figures are real but not statistically interpretable at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda4-signed-volume-persistence@a4-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 14:00Z
[a4] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0021, 0.0374]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda4-volume-dry-up-expansion@a4-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 13:58Z
[a4] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.2527R over 91 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.662), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Campaign openedCampaign A4 opened with 5 pre-registered strategies2026-09-16 13:58Z
Data snapshot MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-15, Holdout partitioned at 2025-12-31 (249,375 bars withheld from every pre-Holdout gate). Code version 3f6e122.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a4/campaign_state.json
Experiment registereda3-pb-elite-volume-confirmed-displacement@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 04:43Z
[a3] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0012, 0.1970]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-arm-c-volume-confirmed-continuation@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 04:41Z
[a3] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.1081R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-failed-expansion-continuation@a3-v1 registeredACTIVE_RESEARCH · HOLDOUTrecord →2026-09-16 04:41Z
[a3] Holdout-eligible but awaiting explicit human authorization -- automatic routing stops here per spec Sec. A#.6, never opens Holdout on its own.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-range-location-volume-interaction@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 04:39Z
[a3] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0052R over 24675 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.992), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-path-disorder-regime-shift@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 04:38Z
[a3] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0130, 0.1685]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-multi-session-trend-persistence@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 04:37Z
[a3] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0600R is negative/flat, and the sign is inconsistent across years (0/1 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign).
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-semivariance-imbalance@a3-v1 registeredACTIVE_RESEARCH · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 04:37Z
[a3] Execution+Statistical Gate: Survives the bootstrap CI and 0.25pt slippage but turns negative at 0.5pt (a realistic execution cost for this instrument) -- not a clean pass.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-volume-acceleration-momentum@a3-v1 registeredACTIVE_RESEARCH · HOLDOUTrecord →2026-09-16 04:36Z
[a3] Holdout-eligible but awaiting explicit human authorization -- automatic routing stops here per spec Sec. A#.6, never opens Holdout on its own.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-vol-of-vol-transition@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 04:34Z
[a3] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0072, 0.0433]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda3-gap-acceptance-rejection@a3-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 04:33Z
[a3] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0924R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Campaign openedCampaign A3 opened with 10 pre-registered strategies2026-09-16 04:32Z
Data snapshot MNQ 2022-06-03..2026-09-15, Holdout partitioned at 2025-12-31 (249,375 bars withheld from every pre-Holdout gate). Code version 128d930.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a3/campaign_state.json
Campaign closedCampaign A2 closed: 0 Phase B candidates from 10 submittedCLOSED2026-09-16 02:40Z
Rejected 9 · reserve/research-version-required 1 · not testable with available data 0.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/campaign_state.json
Holdout resultHoldout result recorded for A2.10RESERVE_RESEARCH_VERSION_REQUIREDrecord →2026-09-16 02:40Z
100 trades consumed · stop reason FORMAL_TARGET_100 · 749,233 sealed bars preserved unused · Survived Holdout but the Final Research Audit flagged unresolved risk(s): Holdout expectancy diverges materially from Validation's own -- treat as a fresh, not fully explained, open question..
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_HOLDOUT_RESULT_REPORT.json
Holdout authorisedOne-shot sealed Holdout authorised for a2-final-hour-reversion-v2record →2026-09-16 02:39Z
AJ <meatham07@gmail.com> -- explicit chat authorization ('AJ APPROVAL -- A2.10 UNTOUCHED HOLDOUT'), trade-count-based deterministic Holdout consumption policy, 2026-09-16
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/campaign_state.json
Evaluated chronologically forward from 2019-05-21T11:26:00.000Z, frozen before evaluation.
research-output/strategy-lab/campaigns/a2/A2_10_HOLDOUT_LEDGER.json
Experiment registereda2-final-hour-reversion-v2@a2-v1 registeredACTIVE_RESEARCH · HOLDOUTrecord →2026-09-16 01:57Z
[a2] Holdout-eligible but awaiting explicit human authorization -- automatic routing stops here per spec Sec. A#.6, never opens Holdout on its own.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-a12-short-efficiency-ratio-momentum@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 01:55Z
[a2] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0054, 0.0992]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-failed-trend-persistence@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:44Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0784R over 906 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.887), with 4/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-range-expansion-asymmetry@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:40Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0034R) but 1/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-variance-ratio-persistence@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · EXECUTION_STATrecord →2026-09-16 01:40Z
[a2] Execution+Statistical Gate: Bootstrap 95% CI [-0.0057, 0.0191]R includes zero -- the raw edge is not statistically distinguishable from noise at this sample size.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-realized-vol-regime-switch@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:38Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0107R over 14652 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.984), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-volume-price-divergence-failure@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:34Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0021R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 77.3% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-volume-climax-exhaustion@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:32Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0266R) but the top 10 winning trades alone account for 62.5% of total R -- the apparent edge is fragile.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-volume-shock-follow-through@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:29Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy is positive (0.0487R) but 2/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign, below the 60% bar for a reasonably consistent result.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
Experiment registereda2-bb-keltner-squeeze-release@a2-v1 registeredREJECTED · LIGHTNING_SCREENrecord →2026-09-16 01:25Z
[a2] Lightning Screen: Aggregate expectancy -0.0042R over 954 resolved trades is negative/flat (PF=0.994), with 3/4 qualifying years (n>=15) agree with the aggregate sign.
research-output/strategy-lab/experiment_registry.json
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