No Strategy Factory campaign artifacts in this checkout — the A6+ campaigns are produced by the multi-market research lane and will be indexed here automatically once their artifacts are present.
Protected decision
17 of 17 shown, newest firstProtected decisionindependent-strategy-family-1-sweep-reclaim-checkpointAWAITING_AJ_DIRECTION2026-09-14
Independent Strategy Family #1 (Liquidity Sweep -> Failed Breakout / Reclaim) is complete -- pre-registered manifest at research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md (commit 6348e9f) + PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md, full synthesis in research-output/liquidity-sweep-reclaim/FINAL_REPORT.md, raw results in phase3to7_results.txt. This is a wholly new, non-V1 setup family (level sweep -> failed breakout…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionindependent-strategy-family-2-breakout-continuation-checkpointAWAITING_AJ_DIRECTION2026-09-14
Independent Strategy Family #2 (Breakout Acceptance -> Retest/Hold -> Continuation) is complete -- pre-registered manifest at research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md (commit 4630541) + PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md, full synthesis in research-output/breakout-acceptance-continuation/FINAL_REPORT.md. Deliberately the mirror-image mechanism of Family #1 (break -> accept -> retest -> hold…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionfamily-10-new-pb-strategy-rules-missing-checkpointRESOLVED_RULES_SUPPLIED2026-09-14
SUPERSEDED: AJ's follow-up 'TradeRep -- Family #10: PB Trading HTF FVG -> 5M FVG -> IFVG Strategy' message supplied the actual verbatim rules (1H/4H FVG interaction -> 5M FVG forms after -> retrace into 5M FVG -> IFVG/inverse-order-flow confirmation -> structural entry). Family #10 was fully pre-registered, built, run, and classified -- see family-10-final-checkpoint below. — None -- resolved.
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionfamilies-3to9-discovery-campaign-checkpointCOMPLETE2026-09-14
Multi-Strategy Discovery Campaign (Families #3-9) is complete -- pre-registered manifest at research-output/multi-family-campaign/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md (commit a4c2b95) + PHASE0_DATA_CAUSALITY_AUDIT.md, full synthesis in research-output/multi-family-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md. One causal full-history extraction pass (1,514,971 MNQ 1-minute bars, 2022-06-03..2026-09-14) fed all seven testable family engines simultaneous…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionfamily-10-final-checkpointCOMPLETE2026-09-14
Family #10 (PB Trading HTF FVG -> 5M FVG -> IFVG) is complete -- pre-registered manifest at research-output/family10-campaign/CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md (commit 84d70ba), full synthesis in research-output/family10-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md. One causal full-history extraction pass (1,515,087 MNQ 1-minute bars, 2022-06-03..2026-09-14) fed the single Family10Engine, producing all five pre-registered ledger comparisons (Contro…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionmaster-traderep-research-report-checkpointCOMPLETE2026-09-14
Master TradeRep research report delivered: research-output/MASTER_TRADEREP_RESEARCH_REPORT.md. Covers the complete program: V1/PB pooled baseline and 'quality' tier (both retracted under causal execution-realism revalidation -- quality tier sign-flips negative, pooled baseline collapses to noise), V1/PB Elite (C -- specialist only, robust under Variant B causal execution but fragile under stricter Variant C, 81.1% o…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionforward-validation-campaign-checkpointINFRASTRUCTURE_COMPLETE_AWAITING_MARKET_DATA2026-09-14
AJ's 'TradeRep -- Forward Validation & Paper-Readiness Campaign' engineering/audit work is complete: research-output/forward-validation-campaign/MANIFEST.md (pre-registered before any prospective outcome exists) pins PROSPECTIVE_VALIDATION_START_UNIX=1789370392 (2026-09-14T07:19:52Z) as an immutable committed constant in lib/strategy-engine/research/forwardValidation/config.ts, shared by every strategy's shadow runn…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionforward-validation-three-queued-items-checkpointCOMPLETE2026-09-14
AJ approved all three items queued in forward-validation-campaign-checkpoint. (1) PB Elite outcome tracker built as an isolated specialist module: new PbEliteOutcomeObservation table + PbEliteOutcomeTracker (lib/strategy-engine/research/pbEliteOutcome/tracker.ts), wired non-fatally into lib/live/webhookProcessor.ts. It never writes to ArchitectureV2LiveShadowObservation or touches classifyArchitectureV2 -- it only r…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisioncandidate-architecture-v2-tiered-quality-and-vetoAPPROVED_BY_AJ_WITH_SCOPE_CONSTRAINT2026-09-13
Formal CANDIDATE RULE specification for a 4-component tiered-quality architecture: (1) valid V1 setup (baseline, unchanged), (2) strong displacement magnitude (quality check, n=159/329, exp=0.359R, p=0.0152), (3) strong displacement + PDL already swept (premium/elite tier, n=46/159, exp=0.625R, p=0.0280), (4) PDH already swept (caution/veto condition applied to Components 1 and 2 as an exclusion, not a qualifying fi…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionexecution-realism-audit-quality-tier-revalidationAWAITING_AJ_DECISION2026-09-13
Execution-realism integrity audit (see completedItems, same date) found that under either execution-realistic entry variant (first-actionable-candle close, or canonical price only if later revisited), the ALREADY-APPROVED 'quality' tier component of the frozen V2 architecture (candidate-architecture-v2-tiered-quality-and-veto, Component 2) loses its positive edge entirely (+0.2508R canonical -> -0.0461R / -0.0289R r…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisioncausal-execution-architecture-revalidationAWAITING_AJ_DECISION2026-09-13
Per AJ's instruction to freeze all promotion decisions and rebuild the validated architecture under Variant B (primary)/Variant C (secondary) causal execution, re-ran the full leak-free walk-forward ledger (same population construction as candidate-architecture-v2, WARMUP=50) plus a full hardening battery on each population. RESULT (classification B -- only a narrow subset survives): pooled/baseline population colla…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionfuture-item-live-notification-stale-entry-priceQUEUED_NOT_IMPLEMENTED2026-09-13
Per AJ's item 10 (this same turn): open a future implementation item so a production READY alert can never advertise a stale confirmation-bar entry price, given the execution-realism audit confirmed both (a) the confirmation-bar price is frequently not the earliest-actionable price (lag >0 in 60.2% of Phase C trades) and (b) lib/live/notifications.ts's READY push body reads `setup.confirmationClose.close` directly w…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionexec-realistic-discovery-campaign-phase0-2-checkpointCLOSED_SUPERSEDED_BY_FINAL_CURRENT_FAMILY_CLASSIFICATION2026-09-13
AJ's new 10-phase Execution-Realistic Strategy Discovery & Revalidation Campaign explicitly instructed: run Phase 0 (causal dataset integrity), Phase 1 (from-scratch hypothesis revalidation), Phase 2 (failure diagnosis), then STOP and return a classification. FINAL UPDATE (same day): AJ's follow-up requested closing out two remaining open questions before permanently classifying the current setup family -- (b) harde…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionpb-hypothesis-1-structural-manipulation-checkpointCLOSED_SUPERSEDED_BY_PB_HYPOTHESIS_22026-09-13
PB Context Research Hypothesis 1 (structural manipulation raid vs. V1's condition-owned local sweep) is complete -- see completedItems, same date. All 4 pre-registered variants (PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, session structure, prior swing) FAIL to separate from local-sweep-only; zero of the 4 comparisons reach even raw p<0.05, let alone the Bonferroni-corrected 0.0125 bar. Classification: D -- FAIL. Notable side-finding: the st…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionpb-hypothesis-2-htf-dol-checkpointCLOSED_SUPERSEDED_BY_PB_HYPOTHESIS_2B2026-09-13
PB Context Research Hypothesis 2 (Higher-Timeframe Draw on Liquidity) is complete -- see completedItems, same date. The general/pooled hypothesis ('any aligned HTF DOL of any of the 3 pre-registered types improves expectancy') is NOT supported under either the primary (Variant B, p=0.1859) or secondary (Variant C, p=0.0582) causal execution benchmark. However, one specific, pre-registered subtype -- Daily/4H confirm…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionpb-hypothesis-2b-swing-dol-hardening-checkpointCLOSED_SUPERSEDED_BY_PB_COMPREHENSIVE_CAMPAIGN2026-09-13
PB Context Research Phase 2B (Daily/4H swing-DOL hardening and diagnosis) is complete -- see completedItems, same date. Key findings: (1) the Variant B-vs-C disagreement is driven by a genuine pricing/timing effect of Variant C's revisit mechanic (confirmed via an apples-to-apples comparison on the identical resolved-under-both trade set, +0.0797R for the swing-aligned population), NOT a selection/attrition artifact…
research-output/campaign-state.json
Protected decisionpb-comprehensive-campaign-final-classification-checkpointCLOSED_SUPERSEDED_BY_INDEPENDENT_STRATEGY_FAMILY_1_DIRECTIVE2026-09-13
AJ's Comprehensive PB-Context Strategy Research Campaign (Phases 0-13, pre-registered manifest at research-output/PB_COMPREHENSIVE_CAMPAIGN_MANIFEST.md, commit 97a173a) is complete -- full results in research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/{phase1to4_results.txt, phase5to9_results.txt, phase11_results.txt} and the full synthesis in research-output/pb-comprehensive-campaign/FINAL_REPORT.md. Of 17 actually-executed…
research-output/campaign-state.json